Why do the Browns still have a chance to make the playoffs even after 13 games?

Ohio’s Cleveland The New York Times playoff simulator indicates that the Browns have an 84% probability of making the playoffs, if you enjoy numbers—and math formulas you probably don’t fully understand but will quote nonetheless. It’s not necessary to major in math to realize that’s quite good.

Or just have a peek at the standings. The Browns have one AFC game remaining this week, against the Titans, which has no bearing on the Browns in terms of the standings. The Browns advanced to first in the AFC Wild Card picture with their victory against Jacksonville on Sunday.

Here, the Browns’ five losses are the crucial figure. Every team behind them in the standings has six or more, meaning as long as the Browns keep winning, they’ll make the playoffs.

Is winning in the NFL simple, right?

Okay, so perhaps not, but the Browns have some more positive news to report: It’s actually difficult for any of the 7-6 teams to win, and in terms of tiebreakers, the Browns are in a respectable position.

Let’s quickly review the tiebreakers for divisions: Head-to-head is the first step, then division record, shared game winning percentage, conference record, and winning percentage.

The following criteria apply to two teams competing for the wild card: head-to-head record, conference record, winning percentage in shared games (minimum of four), and overall winning percentage.

The head-to-head sweep, conference record, record in common games (minimum of four), and strength of victory are taken into account when there is a three-way tie.

In both situations, the division tie is broken first if the two teams are from the same division.

The non-division 7-6 clubs just behind the Browns have faced and defeated Denver and Indianapolis in their head-to-head games. In two weeks, they take on Houston.

Both their conference record of 6-3 and their strength of win presently exceed those of every team immediately behind them.

Regardless of what transpires in Week 18, they own the tiebreaker over Cincinnati in the division. With three victories, the Browns will be too strong for the Bengals, who are 0–4 in the division. With a 3-1 division record, the Steelers, who have split with the Browns, lead the latter team.

In Week 16, Pittsburgh takes on Cincinnati, and in Week 18, it faces Baltimore. By defeating the Bengals in Week 18, the Browns can neutralize the Steelers’ edge.

In actuality, there are seven teams contending for three wild card slots, including the Browns. They have a one-game advantage over each of them and enough tiebreakers left that two more victories should be sufficient to advance them.

To return to the calculations, the New York Times model indicates that they have a 98% chance of making it in if they just defeat the Bears and Jets. That is in the absence of any consideration for other possible positive results.

Getting at least two more is the greater picture here. You ought to be in the competition if you accomplish that.

Regarding the division title, they are two games behind the Ravens, who play at home against Jacksonville, at San Francisco, against Miami, and against Pittsburgh. Indeed, more bizarre incidents have occurred.

Below are the current AFC wild card standings:

5. Browns: 8-5, 6-3 vs. AFC, .544 strength of victory

Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals

6. Steelers: 7-6, 5-4, .517

Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

7. Colts: 7-6, 5-4, .393

Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers, at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans

8. Texans: 7-6, 4-4, .484

Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts

9. Broncos: 7-6, 4-5, .511

Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders

10. Bengals: 7-6, 3-6, .516

Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Steelers, at Chiefs, vs. Browns