Red Sox free agency: Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez who among these make sense?

Red Sox head baseball coach Craig Breslow plans to add a right-handed offensive player this offseason.

There are plenty of exciting options on the free agent market. Under Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox have recently put a lot of emphasis on swing decisions and pitch selection.

What does Breslow value in a hitter? “The ability to execute,” Breslow said at the GM meeting. “And there are many ways to do that. They make good decisions, limit swings and mistakes, and hit the ball hard.

I think everything works together to create runs. If you try to create a single profile, you may encounter problems because we need to be open about how we score. But for me, what do we look for in a hit? It’s just the ability to score points, the ability to create runs.”

Here are the top 12 hitters in free agency.

That is, 10 are right-handed, 1 is left-handed, and 1 is a switch hitter. Sports Base examined each forward’s offensive profile and whether it fits Boston’s needs.

1. Shohei Ohtani:

The 28-year-old right-handed hitter ranks in the 71st percentile in expected batting average (.269), but in the 21st and 10th percentiles in expected weighted on-base percentage (. 303). FA walk rate (5.3). %), according to Baseball Savant, he ranked 5th in slugging percentage (39.4%) and 23rd in slugging percentage (.374) in ’23.

Is Ohtani right for the Red Sox?

Yes, it’s a big market, so the Red Sox definitely want to target generational talent. He’ll miss 2024 with elbow surgery, but in Boston, which is in desperate need of a starting pitcher, he’d be a top-25 addition to the game’s best designated hitter. So Otani is limited to DH. He pitched just 8⅓ innings in the field as a major leaguer. So the Red Sox won’t have the flexibility to rotate players through the designated hitter spot to give them a break from time to time.

The Red Sox also won’t have the long-term flexibility to move Rafael Devers or Masataka Yoshida to designated hitter (DH). Either Devers or Yoshida, below-average defenders on two of Boston’s longest contracts, could end up being full-time designated hitters.

2. Rhys Hoskins:

The 30-year-old right-hander is out in 2023 after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in spring training. He strikes out a lot (25.1% strikeout rate in 2022), but pitches out of the strike zone and walks a lot. In 2022, he ranked 81st in strikeout rate (23.2%) and 80th in walk rate (10.7%). His career walk rate is 13.5%.

In 2022, he ranked above the 75th percentile in expected weighted on-base percentage (338), expected slugging percentage (.445), average exit velocity (90.1 mph), slugging percentage (11.1 %) and hard hits. I had a. According to Baseball Savant, this is based on slugging percentage (44.3%), sweet spot percentage (37.3%), slugging percentage (23.2%), and walk percentage.

Is Hoskins right for the Red Sox?

Yes. Hoskins can serve as a designated hitter and occasionally play first base against left-handed starting pitchers. Basically, he could do something similar to what Justin Turner did in Boston in 2023.

3. Jorge Soler:

The 31-year-old right-handed hitter was an on-base/hit machine last season, hitting 36 home runs in 137 plate appearances (580 plate appearances). According to Baseball Savant, he ranks 94th among all major league hitters in expected slugging percentage (.531) and expected weighted on-base percentage (.376). His high hitting rate was 27.6%. But he also likes to walk. The walk rate was 11.4% (83%) and the strikeout rate was 72% (25.6%).

Is Soler right for the Red Sox?

Yes. The Red Sox could use him as a designated hitter or occasionally in the outfield. He’s a below-average hitter in right and left, but still gives Boston the versatility to use a position player at designated hitter at times.

4. Justin Turner:

The 38-year-old right-handed hitter has shown strong pitch recognition in 2023. He finished in the 77th percentile (17.5%), 77th percentile (17.6%) in sweet spot, 74th percentile in sweet spot (36.8%), 25.7% shooting percentage and 67th in expected percentile. Slugging percentage (.443).

Is Turner right for the Red Sox?

Yes. He recently said it would be “fantastic” to return to Boston. Starting in 2023, he can serve primarily as a designated hitter and also start at first and third base. This allows the Red Sox to rest Triston Casas and Devers and rotate players through the DH spot.

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr:

The 30-year-old right-handed hitter doesn’t swing and miss a lot. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked 84th in strikeout rate (18.7%) and 79th in strikeout rate (17.4%). However, he walked in just 5.6 percent of his plate appearances and ranked in the 13th percentile in walk rate. He ranked in the 63rd percentile in expected slugging percentage (.439), 49th percentile in expected weighted on-base percentage (.326), and 37th percentile in slugging percentage (30.3%).

Is Gurriel right for the Red Sox?

Yes. He’s not as good a hitter as Hoskins and Soler, but he was a plus defender for Arizona in 2023, saving 14 defensive runs in 778 innings. Perhaps the Red Sox could use Yoshida as their designated hitter and have Gurriel play left field. This improves external protection. Yoshida can occasionally play left field, giving position players the occasional opportunity to be the designated hitter.

6. Teoscar Hernández:

The 31-year-old righty ranks 90th in slugging percentage (49.4%), 88th in slugging percentage (13.8%) and 81st in average exit velocity (91.3 mph). h). ), and his projected slugging percentage for 2023 is in the 79th percentile (.471), according to Baseball Savant. However, he ranked below the 13th percentile in strikeout rate (35.2%), strikeout rate (35.8%), strikeout rate (31.1%), and walk rate (5, 6%).

Is Hernandez right for the Red Sox?

Kind of. He plays all three infield positions, but is generally a below-average defender at each position, preventing 24 negative runs in 6,119⅔ career innings. However, he posted a 1-1 defensive record in 1,160⅓ innings pitched (primarily right) last season. Hoskins and Soler would be better options as they tend to have more plate discipline than Hernandez.

7. Jaymer Candelario:

The 29-year-old hitter had 64 extra-base hits (39 doubles, 22 home runs and three triples) for the Nats and Cubs in 2023. However, according to Baseball Savant, he ranks 41st in expected slugging percentage (.405) and 29th in average exit velocity (88.3 mph).

Is Candelario right for the Red Sox?

Kind of. Candelario has historically hit better against left-handed pitching, but is hitting better against right-handed pitching in 2023. He can serve as the designated hitter and occasionally start at first and third base, sending in Casas and Devers. That said, Hoskins and Turner are both good power forwards who can provide similar versatility.

8. Matt Chapman:

The 30-year-old righty ranks in the 100th percentile in slugging percentage (56.4%), average exit velocity (95 mph) and barrel velocity (17.1%) and in the 98th percentile in the 94th percentile .(18.9%) for Toronto last season, according to Baseball Savant. He’s been impressive in 28.4% of his plate appearances, but hasn’t drawn a single walk (10.7% walk rate last year, 10.6% for his career).

Is Chapman right for the Red Sox?

Yes, but not really. Chapman is one of the best right-handed hitters on the market right now. The Red Sox need a right-handed hitter. He also won four Gold Glove Awards as a third baseman. It would be nice if Boston didn’t let Devers enter the first year of his 10-year, $313.5 million contract extension.

Why not play Chapman at third base and move Devers to DH full time because it would improve the outfield and make Boston better offensively? Right now, Devers is making too much money to play the lead DH role. To increase his contract value, the Red Sox would need Devers on the field for at least five to six years before moving him to DH. That said, the idea of signing Chapman, even if it makes sense, is unrealistic.

9. Whit Merrifield:

The Red Sox need a second baseman. Merrifield, a right-handed hitter who turns 35 in January, was an AL All-Star in 2023 but finished fifth in expected slugging percentage (.329) and slugging percentage (24.3%). – On-base percentage (.274), average exit velocity (85.1 mph) and slugging percentage (2.4) per baseball server. The strikeout rate remained at 17.1%, but the on-base walk rate was just 6.1%.

Is Merrifield right for the Red Sox?

No. He is a second baseman and right-handed hitter. The Red Sox need both. But Merrifield is getting older, and over the last three years from 2021 to 2023, he had a .696 OPS in 446 games. He also regressed defensively in 2022 and 2023 (minus-9 defense in 2022-23). The Red Sox may have better second base options with Pablo Reyes and Enmanuel Valdez on the 40-man roster, but Valdez will need to significantly improve his defense.

10. Amed Rosario:

The 28-year-old right-handed hitting infielder ranked in the 71st percentile in expected batting average (.269) but the 21st percentile in expected weighted on-base percentage (.303), 10th percentile in walk percentage (5.3%), fifth percentile in chase percentage (39.4%) and 23rd percentile in expected slugging percentage (.374) in ‘23, per Baseball Savant.

Does Rosario make sense for the Red Sox?

Kind of. While he plays second base and shortstop, he’s just not enough of a consistent hitter. Reyes and Valdez are better options.

11. J.D. Martinez

The 36-year-old right-handed pitcher and designated hitter had a great season on a one-year, $10 million deal with the Dodgers. He ranks 96th in slugging percentage (.551), average exit velocity (93.4 mph), barrel percentage (17.1%), hard hitting percentage (55.1%) and sweet spot percentage (41.1%), ranking in the upper percentile, for baseball experts. He struck out in 31.1 percent of plate appearances and walked 7.1 percent of them, but ranked in the 91st percentile in weighted expected on-base percentage (.370).

Does Martinez make sense for the Red Sox?

No. The Red Sox need a right-handed and designated hitter. However, in the past two seasons, he has started just one game on the field. So he’s limited to designated hitter duties, which limits what Boston can do. Soler, Hoskins, Hernández, Gurriel, etc. It gives the Red Sox some positional versatility.

12. Gio Urshela:

The 32-year-old righty spent most of the 2023 season on the 60-day IL with a fractured left femur. Urshela has a career .277/.322/.423/.745. Last year, out of 228 pitches, the strikeout rate was just 15.8%, but the walk rate was just 4.4%. He keeps his strikeout rate down, but doesn’t walk much.

Is Urshela right for the Red Sox?

No. He was primarily a third baseman, but also started at first, second and shortstop. That would allow him to start at designated hitter and provide versatility as the Red Sox cycle through various position players through that position. But the Red Sox have a better internal structure. For example, if the Red Sox signed or traded for a left fielder, Yoshida would be a good designated hitter.