Toto Wolff wrong about Red Bull as Lewis Hamilton’s F1 fate is painfully clear
Red Bull finished the 2023 Formula One season with more than twice as many points as any other team, and Max Verstappen’s total points were higher than the combined totals of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell.
Toto Wolff likened conquering Mount Everest to Mercedes’s 2024 ambition to catch competitors Red Bull.
As you please, Toto. Lewis Hamilton and George Russell look far more likely to climb the world’s highest mountain than to overthrow Max Verstappen in the upcoming season.
They are, after all, two incredibly fit, accomplished athletes at the pinnacle of their sport. You wouldn’t bet against Russell and Hamilton reaching the top of the world’s tallest peak if you gave them some climbing equipment and a Sherpa.
It would take a lot more guts to wager on Mercedes to defeat Red Bull the following season. This is not meant to cast doubt on the skills and judgment of those who make the important decisions at Brackley; the majority of the brains that produced a string of eight constructors’ titles between 2014 and 2021 are still present in the corridors of Mercedes’ F1 headquarters.
However, a plethora of factors, not to mention the intensity of the rivalry, are conspiring against them. In 2023, Red Bull’s car technology was so advanced and Verstappen’s performance so dominant that they could have easily won both titles without even fielding Sergio Perez.
The performance disparity is still very large. Furthermore, that comes after Red Bull neglected to improve their RB19 car at all for months in order to concentrate entirely on their next racing vehicle, as Hamilton noted after hobbling to ninth place in Sunday’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Red Bull has an enormous advantage over their next opponent in terms of preparing them for the 2024 season.
Right now, it’s hard to imagine any scenario other than Christian Horner’s team rocking up to pre-season testing in Bahrain with another car in a league of its own.
Teams chasing a leader in previous eras have simply been able to throw money at the issue; Mercedes, for example, has never been short of cash and last month announced massive profits from the 2022 season, despite being outperformed by Red Bull on the track that season. However, they can’t do that anymore; the budget cap is great for putting all 10 teams on a more equal financial footing, but it is extremely restrictive for those who need to invest heavily in car development; additionally, the cap on wind tunnel testing time limits Mercedes’s options in 2024—they will have less than the Italians and only marginally more than Red Bull.
A lack of talent is not the problem – Wolff has plenty of that at his disposal both on the track and off it. But all the factors in play mean that his analogy of climbing Everest doesn’t quite do justice to the size of the task facing his team over the next 12 months.
