Breaking; Browns in Real Danger of Losing RB Nick Chubb in Free Agency
Nick Chubb, the Cleveland Browns’ running back may face getting cut for salary cap purposes this offseason. However, even if he isn’t released from his contract at present, there’s a significant probability that he’ll depart in 2025.
Money is the primary concern for both the Browns and Chubb. Having suffered a serious knee injury that prematurely ended his sixth NFL season by over 14 games, the four-time Pro Bowler finds himself in a precarious position with only one year left on his current three-year contract extension worth $36.6 million set to expire in 2024 which commands a salary cap obligation exceeding $15.8 million.
Many top NFL teams spend less on their top two or three running backs than the value of Chubb’s deal, making it considerably higher. If he continues to improve and perform well in 2024, Chubb may be offered another substantial contract.
Alex Kay of Bleacher Report wrote on Tuesday, March 26 in an article that much of Chubb’s free agency value would depend on his performance post-injury despite his consistency. In predicting players who could “reset the free agent market” at their positions in 2025, he suggested that if Chubb can swiftly recover from a pair of knee surgeries and demonstrate minimal negative impact from them, he may receive a lucrative contract next spring.
The Browns are confronted with a complex resolution regarding their running back Nick Chubb.
With Chubb’s upcoming free agency and recent injury, coupled with the Browns’ salary cap constraints and roster configuration, Cleveland is in a particularly intricate and thought-provoking position.
To ensure Chubb’s stay as a beloved player, the Browns can extend his contract and eliminate free agency from consideration. Such an action could considerably reduce Chubb’s 2024 cap hit if structured wisely by Cleveland, consequently lessening his financial burden for at least one or two seasons following.
Zac Jackson from The Athletic reported in February that the Browns do not anticipate Chubb’s return to full fitness until the second half of 2024. This schedule significantly restricts Cleveland’s ability to assess his condition and submit a sensible proposition that benefits both parties.
Jerome Ford, who had an impressive sophomore season and is currently on a cost-effective rookie contract for the next two years, can serve as a competent substitute for Chubb in Cleveland. Although he may not reach elite status like Chubb did during his remarkable five-year run as one of football’s top running backs, Ford offers superior value when considering his low-cost yet high-performance ratio.
Chubb sees an opportunity to secure another lucrative payday, similar to the one he received in 2021, by betting on himself. Recent offseason deals for Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs have been valued at $12 million or more per year from Chubb’s point of view.
Despite suffering an ACL tear in 2020 that caused him to miss 14 games and significantly impacted his productivity the following season, Barkley was able to accomplish this feat at just 27 years old. On the other hand, Chubb will turn 28 ahead of next season and become a free agent when he hits age 29 after it ends.
It is highly likely that Browns running back Nick Chubb will become a free agent within the next year.
Chubb may find it wiser to opt for a contract extension this summer instead of restructuring. The latter would mean losing out on guaranteed money and receiving incentives in its place, with no guarantee of more secured years ahead.
One alternative is for Chubb to reject a restructuring proposal and take an aggressive stance in negotiating contract extensions with the Browns. While this could potentially lead to a favorable deal, it also carries the risk of being released ahead of the 2024 season. Given his lack of prior connections with other franchises, Chubb may struggle to secure lucrative long-term offers until he has substantiated himself on field; hence this situation will likely result in him settling for a one-year conditional agreement followed by free agency in 2025 irrespective thereof.
Chubb’s self-betting play entails a restructure for the 2024 season in Cleveland, where he agrees to keep most of his guaranteed money while giving the Browns space under their salary cap. Later on, Chubb comes back during that same season and proves himself as an elite player by showcasing Pro Bowl-level talent once again – even though RBs were starting to lose value throughout the NFL at that time when he initially signed one of its highest-value contracts several years prior.
The result isn’t necessarily unfavorable for Cleveland, but it does leave Chubb in a prime position to become an unrestricted free agent in 2025. This will be advantageous as the running back market is expected to lack top talent compared to the present offseason. As a result, numerous potential buyers may eagerly offer significant amounts of money for his services.
